Budget season in media companies is always optimistic in September and brutal by November.

We’re now in the brutal phase. Publishers who projected 15% revenue growth are revising down to 5%. Some are planning for flat or declining revenue. And that changes everything about 2026 spending.

Where Money’s Actually Going

Technology spending is up across the board, but not evenly. Publishers are investing in CMS upgrades, analytics platforms, and automation tools. They’re cutting back on experimental tech and “nice to have” features.

Email and newsletter infrastructure is getting serious budget attention. Publishers who ignored their email strategy for years are suddenly allocating real money to platforms like Beehive, Substack, or custom solutions.

Video production is getting mixed treatment. Some publishers are doubling down, others are scaling back. The difference seems to be whether they’ve already figured out video monetization or are still treating it as experimental.

The Staffing Question

Very few media companies are planning significant headcount increases for 2026. Most are holding steady or planning modest reductions through attrition.

The roles getting hired are technical: developers, data analysts, product managers. Editorial hiring is mostly replacements, not expansions.

Freelance budgets are under pressure. Publishers are trying to do more with staff and less with contractors. This probably won’t work, but it’s what the spreadsheets say.

What’s Getting Cut

Events and conferences are first on the chopping block. Office space is being reduced. Travel budgets are getting squeezed.

Experimental content formats are being evaluated hard. If that podcast or video series didn’t prove ROI in 2025, it’s probably not getting renewed for 2026.

Marketing spend is getting scrutinized. Performance marketing that doesn’t show clear subscriber or traffic lift is being cut. Brand marketing is mostly gone unless you’re a major publisher with corporate backing.

The AI Budget Line Item

Almost every publisher now has a specific AI budget line. Most are small, $20,000-$100,000 for mid-sized publishers. It’s mostly going to tools and platforms, not custom development.

Publishers are experimenting with AI for content research, headline testing, SEO optimization, and basic automation. Very few are using it for actual content generation at scale.

The smart money is on workflow automation and analytics enhancement. Working with AI consultants in Melbourne or similar specialists can help identify quick wins before committing to larger implementations.

Revenue Assumptions

Most budgets assume flat or slightly down advertising revenue. Subscription and membership revenue is projected up, but conservatively.

Commerce and affiliate revenue is getting more attention in budget models. Publishers who ignored this revenue stream are now building it into their plans.

Event revenue is being budgeted more conservatively after several years of uncertainty around in-person gatherings.

The Contingency Problem

Smart publishers are building 10-15% contingency into their budgets. That means planned spending at 85-90% of projected revenue.

This is financially prudent but operationally challenging. It means teams are understaffed and under-resourced by design, with the hope of releasing contingency funds mid-year if revenue hits targets.

What This Means for Vendors

If you sell to publishers, budget season is largely over. Deals that didn’t close by October probably aren’t happening until Q2 2026.

Pricing is under pressure. Publishers want discounts, longer payment terms, and performance guarantees. They’re much more willing to walk away from deals than in previous years.

Planning Your Own Budget

Start with revenue projections you actually believe, not aspirational numbers. Build your cost structure to survive at 80% of projected revenue.

Invest in things that reduce costs or directly drive revenue. Cut everything else.

And build flexibility into your plan. The publishers thriving in 2025 are the ones who can adapt quickly when conditions change. That won’t be different in 2026.