Black Friday used to be a guaranteed revenue spike for digital publishers. That’s changing fast.

Programmatic CPMs typically jump 30-40% in the week leading up to Black Friday, but 2025’s numbers are telling a different story. Early data suggests we’re seeing more modest increases, around 15-20%, with significant variance by vertical.

The Shift to Extended Sales

Retailers aren’t waiting for one weekend anymore. Amazon started “early Black Friday” deals in mid-October. Target followed. Now advertisers are spreading budgets across November rather than concentrating spend in one week.

For publishers, this means steadier revenue but lower peak rates. You won’t see the same dramatic CPM spikes, but you also won’t see the post-Cyber Monday cliff.

Programmatic vs Direct Deals

Publishers with strong direct relationships are in better shape. Direct deals for Black Friday week are still commanding premium rates, often 50-70% above baseline. Programmatic is more competitive and rates are compressed.

If you haven’t already locked in direct sponsorships for November, you’re probably too late for 2025. But it’s worth noting for planning 2026 campaigns. Many publishers start conversations in August.

Vertical Performance

Fashion and lifestyle content is still performing well. Tech and electronics coverage is strong but competitive. Home goods content is seeing unexpected strength, possibly driven by ongoing housing market activity.

Food and recipe content has become surprisingly valuable during sale periods. Retailers selling kitchen appliances and cookware are actively targeting cooking sites and magazine properties.

What Actually Works

Video content is commanding higher rates than display. Publishers with product review video libraries are seeing the strongest performance. Written reviews still work but the CPM gap is widening.

Commerce content with affiliate links obviously does well, but pure advertising inventory on high-quality editorial content is holding value better than expected. Readers still want trusted editorial voices, especially when making purchase decisions.

The Australia Factor

Australian publishers face a timing challenge. Black Friday coincides with end-of-year budget cycles for local advertisers. Some brands are going hard on international sale events, others are saving budgets for Boxing Day.

Smart publishers are packaging Black Friday and Boxing Day together in November deals, giving advertisers two major retail moments in one campaign.

Planning for Next Year

Start direct sales conversations earlier. Build video review content year-round, not just in Q4. Diversify revenue streams so you’re not entirely dependent on one seasonal spike.

And watch the data closely this November. The patterns we’re seeing now will shape 2026 strategies.